I have been reading a lot recently, some very good, some drivel and a whole lot in between. It’s day 36 of the lockdown and there are so many hours to fill. My routine is pretty similar daily except for today – I was able to walk around the neighborhood for an hour before sneaking into my abode before 9am. The fellow runners and walkers I encountered were very friendly, respectfully greeting me along the way. I have never before felt or encountered such goodwill in suburbia (Johannesburg, anyway). Upon returning to my desktop and enjoying a brew of java, I listened to a fascinating Zoom recording on BusinessLive. The host, Michael Avery, was interviewing Ken Forrester, Wendy Appelbaum, Jeremy Sampson and Carrie Adams. In case you have no interest in wine, Forrester is a legend in the viticulture industry and his farm produces some excellent chenin blancs. Appelbaum, who is the late Sir Donald Gordon’s daughter, owns the DMZ wine farm. Her estate produced a global leading chardonnay in 2015, rated best in its category. Sampson is a well known marketing guru who understands the critical importance of branding. Adams is a shareholder in Norman Goodfellows, a well known liquor retailer in Johannesburg which has been around for over 100 years. Norman Goodfellows, bless its heart, has been delivering wine and other tickle to our doorsteps for the past 47 years (which must be an e-commerce record?). The topic of the Zoom meeting was the rather sensitive topic of the ANC ban on the transportation and sale of liquor since lockdown. I refer to the ‘ANC ban’ since this has no Cabinet oversight, but rather it is the decision of a cabal of 19 cabinet ministers and some director-generals.
I did not know until this morning that the liquor industry apparently accounts for ±5% of South Africa’s GDP, producing over 250 billion liters of alcohol annually. I also did not know that the industry employs over 600,000 people (the wine industry itself employs over 250,000 of these). This is no sideshow, this is a proper agricultural endeavor.
Wow, there was no mincing of words amongst the panelists. You can watch the recording should you be interested but let me share some quotes from the show:
“..they (read the government) have turned the wine industry into a zoo…the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing…”
“…the amount of money lost to the fiscus, at a time when the country desperately needs money, to fund what may become a humanitarian crisis, is unbelievably stupid…”
“… the government has put the entire country into forced rehab…”
“… we are the only country in the world to ban the sale of alcohol during a lockdown…”
“…the government has no faith in its electorate…”
“…our government has no idea how to run a business…”
I could almost feel the temperature rising in the Zoom room. The panelists claimed that the government had not consulted with the wine or liquor industry through its trade bodies prior to imposing prohibition. They also had no idea when and if, the liquor retail industry would reopen. Imagine trying to run a business with that lack of foresight. They lamented the lost opportunity of wine exports, particularly to the UK where wine sales are up 31% since lockdown began in that island empire. They failed to comprehend the ban on online liquor sales and the potential controls that could be put in place to trace alcohol purchases per individual. Avery ended the session and made reference to “death by a 1,000 regulations”.
Anyway, getting back to actual pandemic, I have been keeping myself busy with numbers and modeling. I hosted three free Excel training interventions this past week in order to give something back, market myself a bit and to distract myself from my empty wine fridge. I used the global numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths per country as the material to work with during the Excel training sessions. We do not know what the final health or economic outcomes of the virus and the lockdown in South Africa is going to be. So far, the health numbers look better than initially predicted. Professor Shabir Madhi of Wits reckons the COVID-19 fatalities in South Africa could be 45,000 over the next two years. The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) has been quoted as estimating the death toll at ±48,300. That’s not great news but it is nowhere near as devastating as the initial estimates of millions. The potential economic aftermath feels like a tsunami. Reports of job losses of between 3 million and 7 million according to National Treasury is terrifying. Watching video clips of queues for food parcels is heart wrenching.
The chart above depicts the estimated deaths per 100,000 per ASSA and Professor Madhi. I have taken the liberty of inserting the numbers of deaths per 100,000 in 2018/2019 from TB, diabetes, murders, HIV and from flu. In case you struggle with your eyesight, as some of us do, the number of deaths from COVID-19 is estimated by the aforementioned experts to be between 77 and 82 per 100,000. That is certainly higher than the 49 per 100,000 that died from TB and the 21,022 souls who were murdered in 2018/19. Moving away from morbidity to depressing stats. There are currently 13,530 people in South Africa per 100,000 that are HIV positive. There were 138 rapes per 100,000 and 291 cases per 100,000 of assault with the intention of doing grievous harm in 2018/19. We truly live in a troubled society.
According to a report by David Hemson this week, SAPS have charged 118,735 people in incidents relating to violations of COVID-19 regulations since lockdown. That is 202 people per 100,000 within a month as opposed to a year. My heavens, what is going on? The vast majority of cases appear to relate to ‘residential incidents’. I pray that the decline in ER cases reported at hospitals has not moved into domestic violence.
I find it useful to put numbers into perspective. Hopefully, a vaccine for COVID-19 will be found soon and then the above death statistics become non-recurring. Unfortunately, the carnage from murder, TB, diabetes and HIV will be with us for some time. The good news is that it appears that COVID-19 is not the killer pandemic initially thought. That is very good news which, I hope remains true or even improves. The very bad news is that our economy is in horrendous shape. It will take moral courage, incredible determination and unbelievable hard work to get out of the quagmire. Unfortunately, it will also require a capable state. Be safe out there. All the best from BeechieB.
Again an excellent revue that should be offered to the daily press for wider coverage.
The government (you are right, the ANC) is rapidly losing our support for treating the majority us as morons by imposing such senseless and stupid regulations on us! How effective in preventing the spread of the virus has the prohibition, the ban on the sale of cigarettes, the export of our wines, the curfew, the 3 hour per day the restriction ox exercising and many more inane restrictions been?
The majority of South Africans are aware of the serious implications of contracting the Covid-19 and will take steps not to spread or contact the virus whilst buying a roast chicken from Woolies!